Plus500

Plus500

By: www.forexpeacearmy.com

This is an overview of the upcoming week. Please refer at here (forexfactory) to see the Calender.

1. Wednesday, January 13th (04:30 New York time) UK: UK Industrial Production.

ws15We have UK Industrial Production coming out. It is expected to read 0.3. Last month it read 0.0.

I recommend trading GBP/USD for this report.

The trigger for this indicator is 2.0. This means that if UK Industrial Production comes out at 2.3 or more, GBP/USD will probably go up by 30 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report.

If it comes out at -1.7 or more negative, GBP/USD will probably go down by 30 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report.

The reason why I recommend such big trigger is because this is very unreliable report to trade but if such bigger trigger is hit, chances are it will work. Most likely it will be a no trade, however.

We will also have UK Manufacturing Production, both m/m and y/y coming out and UK Industrial Production y/y. If they conflict, I recommend skipping the trade, but most likely they won’t conflict.

Obviously, the bigger the difference between expected and actual numbers, the bigger will be the move.

For example: on October 6th, UK Industrial Production came out at -2.5, versus an expectation of 0.2. GBP/USD went down by around 75 pips.

2. Wednesday, January 13th (19:30 New York time) Australia (!HOT!): Australian Employment Change m/m.

We have Australian Employment Report coming out. It is expected to read 10.2. Last month it read 31.2.

I recommend trading AUD/USD for this report.

The trigger for this indicator is 15. This means that if Australian Employment comes out at 25.2 or more, AUD/USD will probably go up by 40 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report. If it comes out at -4.8 or more negative, AUD/USD will probably go down by 40 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report.

We will also have Australian Unemployment Report coming out, if it conflicts with the Employment Report, I recommend staying out, but they almost never conflict.

Obviously, the bigger the difference between expected and actual numbers, the bigger will be the move.

For example: on December 09th, Australian Employment came out at 31.2, versus an expectation of 5.0. AUD/USD went up by 60 pips.

3. Thursday, January 14th (08:30 New York time) USA: US Retail Sales.

We have US Core Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to read 0.3. Last month it read 1.2.

I recommend trading USD/JPY for this report.

The trigger for this indicator is 0.7. This means that if US Core Retail Sales m/m comes out at 1.0 or more, USD/JPY will probably go up by 30 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report. If it comes out at -0.4 or more negative, USD/JPY will probably go down by 30 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report.

We will also have US regular Retail Sales coming out and Import Price Index. You can ignore the Import Price Index, but if regular Retail Sales and core Retail Sales conflict, I recommend staying out.

Obviously, the bigger the difference between expected and actual numbers, the bigger will be the move.

For example: on December 11th, US Core Retail Sales came out at 1.2, versus an expectation of 0.4. USD/JPY went up by 60 pips.

4. Friday, January 15th (08:30 New York time) USA: US CPI.

W will have US CPI m/m coming out. It is expected to read 0.2. Last month it read 0.4.

The trigger for this indicator is 0.6. This means that if US CPI m/m comes out at 0.8 or higher, USD/JPY will probably go up by 30 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report. If it comes out at -0.4 or more negative, USD/JPY will probably go down by 30 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report. 99.9% chance it will not deviate by at least 0.6, and the reason why I am giving such huge trigger is because I don’t want to trade it but if I don’t list this report, I will get a lot of emails asking why.

Currently, the United States of America is not concerned about inflation at all. CPI used to predict possible interest rate changes in the future, but we know for sure the FED will not cut the rates, and also they will not hike the rates either. Currently, the government if more concerned about unemployment and the growth in general, so they will not hike the rates anytime soon, at least they said so.

So, even if it deviates, it will be kind of random price action. Sure, it may work but if you toss a coin, it may work as well.

If you are disappointed that my signal is basically “stay away”, then keep in mind that part of the business is to know when to enter and when NOT to enter. This is type of the report that used to be really hot and even 0.1 deviation was sufficient to have a nice spike. Not the best call is stay in the bed if you live in the U.S. time zones….

By Crazy Cat at www.forexpeacearmy.com